Denver
What the Locals Say
“We are in the midst of seeing
a new city bird called the construction crane, with a number
of relatively large construction
projects under way. But those
big projects take two to three years. Denver
will be somewhat contrarian, as an oil and
gas capital. So it will weather the storm a
little better than most.”
— David Clamage,
president, Saulsbury Hill Financial
What We Said
“In 2006, the Mile High City experienced
its best year ever for tourism with 11. 7 million overnight visitors, according to Long-woods International. … The city’s tourism
market is boosting its job market and retail
sector.” — September 2007
What Happened
Retail employment: 127,600
■ Retail employment in July 2007: 127,600
Denver continues to experience tourism
growth — by 4 percent, in fact, in 2007.
By year’s end, tourism could report another increase via August’s Democratic
National Convention.
But between ’07 and ’08 retail vacancy
increased, and retail-employment numbers
were flat. And the impact of jobs in the
tourism and retail sectors are tempered
by their comparatively low salaries.
With unemployment jumping from 3. 4
percent in May 2007 to 5. 5 percent this
past summer, the Denver metropolitan
area is instead expecting a potential boost
from large technology employers outside
city limits. ConocoPhillips purchased a
430-acre campus in February to develop a
research center. Vestas is building a wind-power plant expected to employ 1,350. And
Anschutz Medical Campus, formerly Fitz-simons Army Medical Center, has plans for
3. 4 million square feet of space for the University of Colorado-Denver and others.
— Jennifer Landree
Seattle
What We Said
“The Seattle City Council recently … lifted
a 17-year-old height restriction on downtown buildings. … The new plan could
eventually increase the number of households downtown by 10,000, most of which
will be multifamily.” — June 2006
What Happened
Effective rent, apartment sector (third
quarter): $1,008
■ Rent in third quarter 2007: $937
■ Rent in third quarter 2006: $870
Seattle-area job growth, which neared 3
percent in 2007, will dip below 1 percent
in 2009, according to recent reports from
the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster and
state labor economists. That trend and the
state of downtown’s largest corporate tenant, Wa Mu — which placed office space on
the market before its demise — likely will
continue to increase office-vacancy rates.
More office and multifamily space
will enter the market via the redeveloping
South Lake Union neighborhood, in which
Amazon.com is scheduled to occupy 1.6
million square feet in its new headquarters by 2011. Higher building limits such as
those downtown already are under review
for the former manufacturing district.
How soon such construction would
be needed is the bigger question. Seattle’s
increase in apartment rents between the
third quarters of 2007 and 2008 was second nationwide to only nearby Tacoma,
according to Reis Inc. For that trend to
continue, the job market must rebound.
A strong apartment market is one reason
the Urban Land Institute recently named
Seattle the nation’s No. 1 commercial real
estate investment market in 2009.
— Darrick Meneken
What the Locals Say
“It’s definitely turned from a
speculators’ market to an operators’ market. There’s a big
distinction there. I would say
multifamily is probably doing
the best.”
— John Odegard,
